What do you suppose?

[fred]

Any concerns about the race rivers opening up a bit later this year?

[michaelalden]

I haven't heard anything here, Fred - but I did ask Jeff Strout at BDN about the possibility of having a high & fast year. Well, as we know a lot can change in a few days let alone a week or a month but Jeff wrote this in a recent article for what it is worth:

"The NWS says snow depths along the coast are averaging a foot or less, increasing dramatically as you head inland where you’ll find three or more feet of snow. The coastal snow has water equivalents of 1-4 inches with content rising from 5 to 10 inches as you head inland. ."Snow water equivalents across western Maine are in the top 25 percent of historical values," the NWS says.

"Reservoir levels are well above normal for the time of year. Reservoirs in the Kennebec River basin are 59 percent full which is 11 percent above normal. Reservoirs in the Androscoggin River basin are 55 percent full which is 16 percent above normal," NWS says, and groundwater levels have been pretty much normal for the time of year. The last part of February show above normal levels for soil moisture. "Water supply shortages are not anticipated this spring," the NWS says. (Ya think?)

In conclusion, the NWS says, "A deep and moisture filled snow pack as well as above normal reservoir levels and high soil moisture indicates that above normal flood potential is warranted. Weather conditions will have to be monitored closely over the next few weeks as a prolonged warm spell along with heavy rain on the deep snow pack could cause serious flooding. … Major flooding does not occur from snow melt alone. Rainfall — how much and in how short a period of time — is the most important factor in determining the severity of flooding."

My advice? Paddle on salt water, it rises and falls predictably…"

[John Mathieu]

The best indicator for river levels in rainfall, not snow pack. Some of the lowest river levels were during great snow years and vice versa. It will come down to how much rain there is before the respective events. As far as rivers opening up, the major variables include temperature, ice pack thickness (function of temperatures from previous months), and again, rain. My humble prediction? The rivers will open up a little later than normal. As far as levels go, it will depend on the spring rains. The good news is April will yield some of the best spring xc skiing the state has seen in 20 years!